Researchers, including those from the American Cancer Society (ACS), published a study in JAMA Oncology projecting a 77% increase in global breast cancer cases by 2050, from 2 million in 2020 to 3.7 million annually. The study also forecasts a 60% rise in breast cancer deaths, from 680,000 in 2020 to over 1 million annually, using data from the Global Burden of Disease and Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence databases.
The study anticipates that low and middle human development index (HDI) countries will experience the most significant surge, with cases potentially increasing by over 100% and deaths by more than 120% by 2050. These countries are projected to account for nearly 75% of global breast cancer deaths by 2050, up from 63% in 2020. This projected rise is attributed to factors such as global population growth, aging populations, and lifestyle changes, including westernized diets, obesity, alcohol consumption, reduced physical activity, fewer childbirths, and later first pregnancies.
Dr. William Dahut, chief scientific officer for the ACS, emphasized the critical need for equitable access to early detection and treatment worldwide. Similarly, Dr. Freddie Bray, head of cancer surveillance at the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), called for comprehensive strategies, particularly in low-resource settings, to address the impending burden. The findings highlight an urgent requirement for increased investment in breast cancer prevention and care, especially in regions with limited resources.
